Blogs from the major masters (JOEJOEJOE, izaax), finishing the demographic dividend focus: from pop

Blogs from the major masters (JOEJOEJOE, izaax), finishing the demographic dividend focus: from population to see economic development (I) of the population to see the economic development From the Demographic Trend to population growth the Economic Development immigration country is not alone: U.S. annual vietnam population growth Approximately 280 to 300 million people, of which only 80 to 900,000 immigrants, vietnam population natural increase of about 2 million, the birth rate remained at 2.09 this close to the population replacement rate (2.3) Generally speaking, vietnam population izaax that a higher birth rate of immigrants or the elderly to solve of the problem, only the symptoms, not the illness. Improve the social impact of the retirement age population will be much smaller present our so-called economic growth, GDP growth probably means that the so-called. And to raise GDP growth, which means to increase economies of scale, there are two ways to start. 1. Expanding population base (raise the number vietnam population of female population, especially "labor population") 2. Expansion of production efficiency (increase in per capita GDP) in Russia but also to the population in less than Japan, for the economy as a whole did not imagine vietnam population the load big, rich natural resources in Russia, the country still with the color scheme and the distribution of economic, rely on rising international prices of raw materials, vietnam population so the Russians lucrative, reducing per capita of the population but make more improved, so that economic growth can be sustained, in addition A reason for this is to reduce the population: the average life expectancy of Russian men is just over 60 years old (and perhaps drinking habits), died early, vietnam population so ... which paradoxically reduces some of the impact vietnam population of aging. From the population vietnam population to see economic development (II), from population to see economic development (III) Another big thank JOE finishing line graph: http://www.fileden.com/files/2007/2/21/805098/Joe20090210.xls main is to look at the data independency ratios vietnam population Asian countries Japan: the labor force since the recession in 2000, not open immigration, low birth rate, only relying on the extension of retirement to support ... the future does not look good. South Korea: (birth yet bottomed) vietnam population but by the JOE large chart shows, roughly 2015 until the beginning of the recession. China: (still falling birth rate, death rate will be further reduced, accelerated aging), but by the JOE large chart shows, roughly 2015 until the beginning of the recession. Malaysia: sustained growth. vietnam population Singapore: 2015 will be the beginning of a recession. And Philippines: sustained vietnam population growth. Thailand: in 2020 only began to decline. Vietnam: sustained growth. Israel: sustained growth. Turkey: in 2035 only began to decline. Hong Kong: 2025 only began to decline. Taiwan: 2015 only began to decline. Europe Germany: dramatically shrinking workforce's to the 2020s will again accelerate the rate of deterioration will probably be equivalent to the current situation in Japan, but also a little better than Japan, Germany is estimated to be able to deteriorating vietnam population trends in the 2040s ended steady. Italy: From the 90s, the demographic dividend would cease to exist, its economy from sinking it, in 2030 the rate of deterioration will be accelerated to 2050 will only be stable. UK: + (birth rates rise, immigration continuing contributions) in 2010 after entering the same fate Ice Slide, in order to go off the bottom after 2040. But the big chart JOE seen, roughly 2015 until the beginning of the recession. Russia: (birth rate did not fall at the end, and estimates of future mortality rates will be gradually reduced, so that the aging problem is more serious), but by a large chart JOE seen, probably until 2025, began to decline. France: (a significant rebound in the birth rate, immigration continued contribution) but by the JOE large chart shows, roughly 2015 until the beginning of the recession. USA + What (continued rise in the birth rate, immigration continued contribution) vietnam population The good news is? 1.2030 vietnam population early years the U.S. could stabilize or even fall to the end of a rebound earlier than the above that the long list of countries, vietnam population ranging from 10 to 20 years. 2. Decline by only about 5 to 6 percent, and India and Brazil almost, but also a small win France. vietnam population 3 off the bottom of the final stable value remains above 60%, which is about the same levels and India and Brazil, Japan, more than 10% compared to full up, that is, when every 100 people vietnam population in the United States, Japan more than 10 labor population, 10 people or fewer dependents. 4 U.S. birth rate is currently still continuing to rise slightly, with the contribution immigrants have the opportunity vietnam population to further moderate deterioration in speed and amplitude. EU - (although the old structure of Europe's vietnam population population has stabilized, but Eastern Europe become a major drag, the next 50 years the overall population structure of the EU and Eastern Europe severely drag) Analysis: vietnam population China: vietnam population the short term, the Chinese until 2015, are also continue vietnam population to enjoy the benefits brought about by the demographic dividend, but after that? That is why the Chinese government so eager to make China rich in decades, because until 2015, if not rich, everything will be when I'm not. Then the whole country would be at great speed towards aging, and completely unable to stop, then the social welfare and health care system if the country is not well constructed, it will undoubtedly be a disaster! To talk about the rise of China, vietnam population must first solve the most fundamental problem, otherwise it into the footsteps of Japan seems to be difficult to avoid the fate of (poor version of Japan). U.S. to deal with China given point in time between 2015 and 2020? This is one important reason. In addition, after 2015, taking into consideration the importance of China on the global economy is (when China would like the global economic importance of Japan in the early 1990s), will cause serious impact on the global economy, and is different from the past , this is no longer a single country in crisis, whether it is a mature European countries, and to South Korea in this new body, to China and Russia and other BRIC, almost all have entered in 2015 after a long period of population balance, when the global economic fear long-term economic growth momentum will fade away into the era, and a few years to go, a long time is difficult to recover. Summary: 2015 to 2020 will be another important turning point in the global economy, that it will be very exciting, this storm is probably just a preview, but the certainty or to grasp, in fact, although the above analysis seems very pessimistic, but also not entirely antidote, for example if we put the retirement age raised to 70 years, and that the situation will improve in many parts of the country.
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