Real estate prices, million in fact, and other commodities, are the "supply side" and "demand-side" to decide. "Supply side" is a homeowner or contractor, "demand side" is likely to demand for investment or owner-occupied buyer wants to homebuyers. Unlike other commodities is that each house is unique, even if it is built with a case, because the floor, pattern, facing different, million there are differences in price per ping. However, even unique, the buyer can still have alternative choices. Demand from people who live in other nearby million can change to buy a house, or another area to find the house, of course, can not buy, first renting or living with family. People can change the investment case to buy another building, or change to invest in gold, stocks, real estate and even abroad. As long as no one is buying (demand reduction), and the seller million must sell (supply unchanged), the price will be corrected. (Of course, the seller million can not sell it to recover, homeowners or builders will continue million to hold this object, placed or personal use, you can hire, builders can also choose not to build a new house, you can choose not to follow a unified production pudding the same.)
That being a "demand-side" and I want to determine how to use what price to buy it? And all goods and services, as you are willing to pay the "price" is usually what you think "value" you will receive. million Taiwan regardless of the northern, central, southern, are more convenient, more lovely. I came 14 years ago from central Taipei to study, from the settlers to stay in Taipei. Formerly million home to three hours sitting in the passenger by train to two and a half hours, now have high-speed rail, one hour to go. Many comfortable million arts space, after remediation beautiful riverside parks, recreation has become a good place for the weekend. Not only high-speed rail, as well as people rely on every day in Taipei MRT, but significantly reduces the traffic round-trip time. If you do not see a building that comes along with the occasional occurrence of "inefficiency" (many roads dug and filled, filled out and dig) or "scandal" (This is not an example of), in fact, really living in Taiwan happiness. million As of now I am working in Taipei, for example, if I want to buy a house, how much money I am willing to do? I want to buy in what area? My heart is definitely million an answer. With the construction of more and more time in place in my heart for the "own house" it's "value" may increase, but once the prices of the "price" higher cognitive too I "value", I would will hesitate.
"Expected psychology" is actually not wrong. I might "expect" high-speed rail after the South becomes expensive, because if I work, people little closer to home ... and so forth, really want to live in the South, I might choose to buy now, as the buying price, it is my opinion, "High Speed Rail will confirm the opening, but did not open to traffic," "value" before. The same "Expected psychological" prices also occurred in recent years turned up several "re-zoning" (island over there). I "expect" gradually put in place after the construction of "living value" "re-zoning" will increase, so I would like to use now "price" to buy it in the future "value." If these "construction" are occurring as scheduled, then the "price" and "value" balance, that would also OK (even though the "price" and "value" balance, I would have to be before they can afford, after Taiwan's "prices The resulting ratio "ranks first in the world). If the "construction" is shouting, but the consortium or contractor to bid up prices to lay out a "dream", that is speculation.
These now "demographic dividend" what does it matter? million (Already know "demographic dividend" definition of who can skip directly to look for some) "demographic dividend" return to nature, is "demographic" into "demographic dividend" and "demographic balance", thereby affecting the population. When a country's "dependency ratio" of less than 50%, which is "dependent population" (juvenile population under 14 years old, and 65 years of age or older population) proportion of "working age population age" (15-64 million years) When less than 50% (it represented more than two young adults do not want to be responsible for a working capacity of the elderly, children), rich labor resources, called the "demographic dividend" period. When the "total dependency ratio" of more than 60%, then enter the "demographic balance" period.
Taiwan's total population in 2012 was approximately 2,332 thousand. By low fertility (late marriage, million no marriage and late fertility, less fertile trend) and the elderly of the impact (life expectancy rising), according to the Council for Economic Planning and Statistics, Taiwan's "dependency ratio" of 55.0% from 1983, continuing down to 2012 of 34.7% (the lowest point), then rebounded to improve, if the total fertility rate in a more moderate middle to push the total value (assuming that the total fertility rate from 1.24 in 2012 to 2035 who rose to 1.3 people maintaining a constant), is expected to to 2027 "dependency ratio" will reach 50.9 percent, ending "demographic dividend" period and reached 60.8% in 2033, to enter the "demographic balance" period. By estimate, Taiwan to 2060 "dependency ratio" will reach 97.1%, higher than 1960's 92.03%.
"Demographic dividend" concern "dependency ratio" not only affects million the structure of Taiwan's population, resulting in decreased productivity, per capita economic million burden becomes heavier, but also affected the population. By the long-term impact of the decline in fertility in the past, making the number of women of childbearing age in Taiwan million also continued to decline. Therefore, even if the total fertility rate in the future, such as Europe, America and other countries inversion recovery, unless million the growth rate is large, otherwise, the number of births will continue to decline. With the decline in mortality rates, rising life expectancy and deaths coming to a rapid increase in the elderly population, 2012 population of approximately 2,332 million, is expected in 2022, "was born in the number of" approximately equal "number of deaths," population approximately 2,364 thousand. After that, if not consider changes in international migration of population, the population of Taiwan million will gradually decline, 2033 was approximately million 2,342 Wan (where million the population is not big changes, but into the "demographic balance" period, million changing demographics, million "dependency than "up to 60.8%), is expected to fall below $ 20 million million mark in 2055, about 1,999 people, more dropped to 1,892 million in 2060, about the number of people back to between 1983-1984. Although the population million is similar, but the difference is demographic change, "dependency ratio" million from the 1983-1984 average of 54.5 percent to become 97.1% and average per capita burden becomes heavier.
When the price trend in Taiwan, cited from the current global real estate website (global property guide) observed, "Lutheran price index" point of view, if the first quarter of 2001 as the base period, from 1998 to 2012 the annual million price index in the fourth quarter, the end of the year the population dependency ratio, million although probably on prices as the population growth and the decline in the dependency ratio rises, but prices are still ups and downs of the band. If the time series and then stretched, you will find even Taiwan's population continued to grow, rising prices are not endless. Because the factors that affect the price of the lot, covered the political, interest rates, the economy, policy, tax rates, million etc., is not a pure population and population structure can be determined.
However, it must be said that the number of people in Taiwan have never met decline. Since 1960, the annual growth rate of 3.3 percent from a year earlier, all the way down to 0.4% in 2012 is expected to be close to zero in 2022 will reach 0.1%, regardless of the magnitude and then a small, at least the population million is growing, maintenance ratio is also way down. After 2023, the Taiwanese will continue to decline million by 0.1% -1.1% annual rate of decline, although the drop in the rate of value seems unlikely, "compounding" the power of the very terrible. When in 2060 the number of population into 18.92 million in Taiwan, and the "dependency ratio" becomes 97.1% (of which "help the old rate" on the contribution of 77.7%), in the end what will become of society? We have not met, we can only simulate projections (most of the articles million are mostly cited the experience of Japan's aging population to estimate Taiwan) though million someone million asked, Taiwan will open new immigrants? Nissan will set new immigrants in Taiwan? (Some people think that people million moved to Taiwan, mainland China, Taiwan, the real estate buying ...) This and related policies and international economic (what reward immigrants is? What kind of incentive for them to want to set the production in Taiwan?), Not Cipian discussion list.
According to 2012 Ministry of Interior statistics, Taiwan Year of construction more than 30 years has 3.19 million, accounting for 8.12 million house in Taiwan nearly 40%. Which, with an average age of houses million in Taipei reached 29.2 years, more than 440,000 Kan Uk over 30 years of age, accounting for over 50% of all the houses million in Taipei, which has 130,000 Kan Uk age more than 40 years. In general banks as a building life of 50 years for the RC structure standards, these houses slowest to 20 years (2032), reached 50 years of age homes. Nothing less than 40% of the proportion of low to high seismic bring Taiwan million to see where to live in peace of mind must be properly checked and strengthen structural safety. (Our company leased office Building age 43 years, million although the essence of the lot, Taipei, close to Nanjing Fuxing MRT Station just 5 minutes walk, the rent is not expensive, but we often smile say, 10 years later we would not dare to continue million renting here.)
If we "demand" million and "supply" to see together, you will find an interesting phenomenon: From 2012 to 2032, the total population is expected to decline by 0.6%, to 15 to 64 years old "age of working age population" point of view, dropped by nearly 15% (I know that children under 20 do not buy self-reliance, but more than 65 years of elders is still possible to buy a house, so here we are pushing the government to gauge the current age of the population as may be required to buy their own homes in the needs of the population ), and each person to pay the dependency ratio is high, the impact on prices of ability to pay. However, compared to the decline in demand, the decline in supply are not much better million (nearly 40% of the house will house up to 50 years of age). By the end of 2012 the total amount of about 8.12 million residential Taiwan, of which about 860,000 residential use is low (ratio of 10.63%, million commonly known as "vacancy rate"), million which means that the non-empty house of about 7.26 million. Assuming 2032 residential demand due to demographic changes and reduced by 15%, it becomes million 6,170,000, but Kan Uk aged over 50 years old house is also up to 3.19 million. Over the past decade, Taiwan's annual new construction permit issued approximately 100,000, in order to estimate the next 20 years may increase million 2 million new housing supply. Estimate future supply and demand for 20 years (supply: 8,120,000 - 3,190,000 + 2,000,000 million = 6,930,000 vs demand: 7,260,000 x 85% = 617 households), both of which fall to 10.97%, and The current vacancy rate is not far. Although more than 50 years of age is not unusable house, but due to the aging of the house are mostly concentrated in developed urban areas, most of the new houses are more partial suburbs, under all digital phase balance, demand for housing is still relatively million high.
To solve the problem of supply, at first glance, you increase the supply of new houses just fine. In fact, the Government increase the supply of new houses to do a lot, and therefore prices have not dropped, but still elevated. For example: Taipei City and New Taipei City had been implemented "is more." The conception is more favorable, but in addition to the successful integration of the new willingness of all households in the case is not easy, but are more successful launch, although there are volume incentives, can cover a little more than floor area, but the construction industry as a supplier, sub- After giving tenants, it is impossible not to make money. Plus the original tenants' expectations psychology ", thus making the" is more "when the topic is very ram, not only did not decline in value of new homes, but causing house over 30 years old medieval no elevator apartment prices shot up. Another example: the state-owned land auction, so builders used to build a house. Indeed increase the supply of new houses, but the state-owned land prices hit record highs in the upper lid of the house price is not Fiji, with state-owned land area is large, relatively intact, most builders planning mansion, prices hit a new high region.
Apart from increasing the supply of affordable housing outside, so that over time you can continue to use the old house, but also the stability of housing supply and reduce demand for housing tenants to change the practice. House for more than 50 years are not really safe. I sought the advice of a structural engineer friend, he said, Year of construction high house is safe, is to determine the validity of the concrete. Concrete useful lives of about 50-60 years, but if the concrete remains good, in fact, life can be longer. Criterion is the degree of neutralization can do a test sample. Some house wall tiles or waterproof do well, cracks are small, easy to water seepage, then house age to 80 years or 100 years is possible. More dangerous, there are many houses had covered not so strict, plus waterproof exterior wall tile or did not do very well (many apartments exterior seepage serious), under the wind and rain, the useful life of concrete can not be extend (he said that Taiwan has many bridges have been 70, 80 years, if there is no reinforcement is very dangerous). So now do a lot of the old house facades lift, if done well, in fact, the structure of great help. Will play before the lift in addition to the old tiles with a protective layer of concrete to fill the gap, and then paste the new tile, concrete protection again. Now tiles are great, with good results in preventing wind and rain, so you can extend the life of the house. Recent news appeared "old apartment elevator grant application," I feel good, an increase of elevator equipment, so that more and more seniors housing, if not change, but also to live in convenience. (Of course, installed an elevator or lift the apartment, if people want to resell, usually the price will elevate, but certain aspects of its "value" also enhance As for the "value" worth, let the market the supply and demand sides to decide.)
I think all of the regulations is not difficult million place legislation, but rather supporting mechanism executed. Whether is more, appropriate housing, structural safety inspection are. Taipei is pushing the "old house health check" is a good policy, they meet the house for more than 30 years of age, on the ground floor of the Multi-Family 3 and half of homeowners agreed to perform, you can apply for "old house health check ", each of them grants 10,005 thousand to 30,000 yuan. Although the implementation of these policies million need to spend resources, but still want to do it. Natural disasters can not wait until the next time, it has yet to review why the Government as? Why did not properly protect the security of the people live? And through good mechanism, Taiwan will become the next 20 years of age 50 years old building houses have new life, and stability, "supply", so that supply and demand are not backward side.
If we are between the 2001 and 2013 five banks that the average one-year deposit interest rate and letter
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