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With great surprise, have been perceived on Friday the results of the census. 2011 Germany had assumed after roughly mundo total 1.5 million mundo total fewer inhabitants than statistically. However, the census results just do not say that Germany's population is shrinking, as many media are writing this now - they mean rather that in 2011 less people lived in Germany as thought the authorities.
Surprisingly, this is in fact not at all: It has long been suspected that many foreign residents just do not log out of a transfer abroad. This effect had "accumulated" since the last census in 1987. Thus, the census provides primarily a cleanup of inactive members. Thus, the authorities known total number of people in Germany for 2011 changed - no more, no less. Nothing changes the census to reality, for example, to the housing mundo total shortage in many German cities.
The demographic miracle and the wrong shrinkage logic dedicated to detail the June issue of the magazine Cicero: Hooray, we grow! Germany on the way to 100 million people with a cover story by Andreas Rinke and Christian Schwägerl, a photo reportage on immigrants and an interview mundo total with CDU Vice Armin Laschet on the magnetic Germany and the integration mundo total of immigrants. mundo total
Cicero readers are already prepared for two weeks on the outcome of the census: "The last microcensus has cleaned up here at the absolute population size and the longevity of statistical artifacts," we read in the current issue. And precisely because of the misconceptions about the census, the cover story of the issue comes at exactly the right time: "Hurrah, we are growing!"
Because of Germany's population is growing again. At this statement will change absolutely nothing - the reference year of the census, 2011 happens to be the year, at the end of the Federal Statistical Office had noted a trend reversal: the first time, attracted again more people than migrated. And the effect was already so great that it even outweighed the negative birth / death balance: The result, the population is growing again. 2012 reinforced the trend.
This shows that the previous assumptions for the shrinking population by 2060 is not a natural law. Even the resurgence of the total population in the years 2011 and 2012 had not been expected. The assumptions for the development of population growth by 2060 based on surveys of 2009 - a real crisis year for Germany. All indicators for the country showed then down. For this thinking resulted the assumptions used to this day, that the population could fall to 64 million mundo total people by 2060. Only the end of 2014 the Federal Statistical Office will resubmit new forecasts - all indicators currently point but upwards.
No one doubts the "baby bump", stands in front of Germany. mundo total The low birth cohorts have a decrease in the number of potential mothers result - this will most likely mundo total lead to a further decline in first number of babies. But: not counted so far unexpected developments both in immigration, fertility and other life circumstances.
Immigration is the best example of the trend is quite likely have been different, mundo total as one could foresee this 2009: Next page: Germany is facing a wave of immigration
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