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Global population data between 1900 and 2010 have served a team of researchers from the Autonomous University of Madrid for believing that the number of people on Earth will stabilize by mid-century. The results, obtained using a physical model, matching the forecasts downward population of alaska UN. Learn more about: population of alaska world population model economy
According to estimates by the United Nations, the world population in 2100 will move into a range between 15,800 million for the highest estimate, and 6,200 million for the lowest, even a figure below 7,000 million population of alaska today.
A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and CEU-San Pablo seems to confirm the lower estimate and a stagnation or even a slight decrease in the number of people on Earth in the middle of this century XXI.
For the study, published in the journal Simulation, we have used the series offers UN population between 1950 and 2100. After been applied mathematical equations population of alaska used in scientific fields such as physics of condensed matter.
"This is a model that describes the evolution of a two-tier system in which there is a probability of transition from one to another," explains to SINC Felix F. Muñoz, researcher and co-author UAM.
The team has considered the Earth as a closed and finite system, where there does not affect migration of people inside, and where the fundamental principle of conservation of mass-in this case, biomass and energy is satisfied.
"Within this general principle, the variables that limit the top and bottom of the two levels of the system are the rates of birth and death," said Munoz, who noted that there has been a change in the relationship population of alaska between population of alaska the two variables Over the last century.
"We start from a general situation of high fertility and high mortality, with slow growth for the first, population of alaska he adds, but soon falls in mortality in the second half of the twentieth century by the health improvements and increased hope life, and it seems that the population will grow well. However, in the last three decades the number also drops lots of children born in the world. "
The sigmoid-curved S-shaped model reflects this, with a turning point in the mid-80s of last century, when the population begins to reduce its rate of growth up to stabilize around 2050.
The data also reflect the downward trend in the number of UN projections. "Overcrowding was a ghost in the 60s and 70s, but historically population of alaska have been meeting the expectations of the low fertility variant of the UN," says Muñoz.
In as close as 1992 it was expected that 2010 would be 7.170 million people on Earth, instead of the actual 6,800 million. In fact, the fertility rate has fallen over 40% since 1950.
"This work is a trial to the debate, but we do not enter into significant population of alaska economic, demographic and political consequences that may involve the stabilization and aging global population," concludes the researcher.
Julio A Gonzalo, Felix Fernando Munoz, David J Santos. "Using a rate equations approach to model World population trends". Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling population of alaska and Simulation International 89: 192-198, February 2013.
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Newborns are already aware of your own body 2.
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